Middle East conflict hits tourism as global growth slows to 0.4%

The Middle East conflict has dealt a major blow to tourism in the region and begun to weigh on travel demand far beyond its borders, with international tourist arrivals in the Middle East plunging 22% in the first half of 2026 as global tourism managed only modest growth of 0.4%.

An estimated 690 million tourists travelled internationally between January and June, just three million more than during the same period last year, according to the latest World Tourism Barometer from UN Tourism.

The figures underline the wider impact of the conflict, which has disrupted air connectivity, increased travel costs and weakened consumer confidence in markets well beyond the Middle East.

Global international arrivals rose 2% in the first quarter, but fell 1% in the second quarter. Arrivals declined 3% in April and again by 3% in June, with the latter decline reflecting a combination of regional conflict, weaker demand and other disruptions.

The sharp slowdown in June was particularly evident in Western Europe, where arrivals fell 6%, partly because of a heatwave affecting some destinations.

South-East Asia recorded a 5% decline in arrivals in June, with UN Tourism citing weaker demand from Asian markets, geopolitical tensions, disruptions to air travel through the Middle East and higher travel costs. Some destinations in Oceania also saw arrivals fall 6%, partly because of Typhoon Sinlaku during the second quarter.

UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais said the latest figures showed that tourism was continuing to grow but that the expansion remained fragile.

“The Middle East situation has touched destinations far beyond the region itself,” she said, adding that the developments were a reminder that resilience had to be built across the tourism sector rather than only after a crisis begins.

Middle East bears the brunt

The Middle East was by far the hardest-hit major tourism region during the first half of the year, with international arrivals down 22% from the same period in 2025.

The conflict, which began affecting international tourism in the region and elsewhere from early March, disrupted flights and air links and undermined travel demand.

The impact gradually eased in May and June after a ceasefire was announced, allowing some air routes to reopen. However, the recovery in consumer sentiment remained uneven, UN Tourism said.

The disruption also highlights the Middle East's importance to global aviation and tourism networks. Reduced air connectivity through the region affected travel between major Asian and European markets, while higher oil prices added to airline operating costs and contributed to increased fares.

Europe and Africa buck the trend

Despite the global slowdown, several regions recorded stronger growth during the six-month period.

Africa led with a 4% increase in international arrivals, followed by Europe with 3% growth. The Americas recorded a 2% rise, although performance varied considerably among individual sub-regions.

Asia and the Pacific posted 1% growth compared with the first half of 2025 but remained 11% below 2019 levels. UN Tourism said disruptions to air connectivity, higher air fares and uncertainty continued to weigh on intra-regional travel.

Within the region, North-East Asia recorded 3% growth, while South Asia registered a 5% decline and South-East Asia fell 1%.

Outlook cut as uncertainty persists

UN Tourism has lowered its forecast for international tourism growth in 2026, now expecting arrivals to increase by between 1% and 2% globally. That compares with its January forecast of 3% to 4%.

The revised outlook reflects continued geopolitical volatility, with the eventual duration of the Middle East conflict and its impact on oil prices and inflation expected to be key factors shaping travel demand.

Higher energy and transport costs are likely to remain a concern for airlines and travellers, while persistent inflation could encourage tourists to seek cheaper destinations or shorten their trips.

UN Tourism also expects travellers to increasingly prioritise value for money and opt for destinations closer to home or domestic holidays as elevated prices and uncertainty continue to influence travel decisions.

The first-half figures therefore point to a tourism industry that has remained resilient despite multiple shocks, but with growth increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical disruption, energy costs and the wider economic environment. -TradeArabia News Service