International visitor spending in the Middle East is forecast to increase by $116 billion, or 57%, between 2025 and 2030, according to the newly unveiled ATM Travel Trends Report 2026, produced by Arabian Travel Market in association with Tourism Economics, an Oxford Economics company.
The findings were presented by Dave Goodger, Managing
Director EMEA at Tourism Economics, during the ATM Annual Trends Report: Middle
East Momentum & Market Shifts on the Global Stage at ATM 2026, which is
taking place at Dubai World Trade Centre until Thursday 17 September.
The report highlights strong global growth in travel during
2025, with total visitor nights reaching a record 24 billion, 16% above 2019
levels. In-destination visitor spending also rose 26% compared with 2019,
reaching $7.2 trillion, while international arrivals surpassed 1.5 billion
for the first time.
The Middle East, North Africa and South Asia (MENASA) region
has emerged as a major contributor to the expansion. Total travel volumes
across MENASA in 2025 were almost 50% above 2019 levels, three times the rate
of growth recorded globally. The region also accounted for more than half of
the worldwide increase in international travel compared with 2019.
Despite expectations that geopolitical disruption will weigh
on Middle East travel in 2026, Tourism Economics forecasts a strong rebound in
2027. International travel is projected to grow by 8% globally next year,
compared with 17% across MENASA.
The report also points to a significant reduction in the
time required for tourism markets to recover from major disruptions. Recovery
periods have shortened from approximately 24 months in the early 2000s to
around 10–12 months in recent years.
By 2030, international travel across MENASA is forecast to
reach 316 million arrivals and 2.3 billion visitor nights, generating $408
billion in spending. Compared with 2025, these figures represent increases of
36%, 46% and 55%, respectively.
Speaking during the session, Goodger said: “We are indeed
optimistic about growth. Over the next five years we see travel expanding on a
structural basis rather than just a cyclical rebound. International travel has
never mattered more, 2026 is building on a record 2025, and MENASA is outpacing
the world.
“This year is disrupted by an uncertain economic and
geopolitical backdrop, but consumers are treating travel as essential. People
are prioritising experiences over things, and that, combined with favourable
demographics, rising wealth and sustained investment in capacity, underpins our
confidence in the region’s long-term momentum.”
Technology is expected to be another important factor
shaping the region’s tourism industry. According to research cited in the
report, 91% of Middle East travel businesses are piloting or operating
artificial intelligence within their organisations, while 85% report measurable
cost savings.
The use of AI is also increasingly influencing travellers.
Prospective visitors to the Middle East are more than twice as likely to have
used an AI chatbot to plan a trip, at 28%, compared with 12% among travellers
interested in other regions.
The findings were further discussed during the Travel Trends
Panel: Why Travel Will Win in the Middle East, which featured Eddy Tannous,
Chief Operating Officer of Rotana Hotel Management Corporation PJSC; Tarik
Fadil, Vice President of Supply at Agoda; and Goodger.
Tannous pointed to the region’s expanding hotel capacity and
argued that its future potential should be viewed against global tourism
markets rather than historical regional benchmarks.
“I find the growth discussion very interesting. In 2008, the
market changed drastically. We went into a recession, and everyone was asking:
Is this it? Have we reached maximum capacity? At the time, Dubai had around
45,000 keys; today it’s closer to 160–170,000 keys.
“We’re hearing a similar story now in Abu Dhabi, which is at
around 55,000 keys: Are we at full capacity or not? Personally, I don’t like
comparing ourselves to what we were five or ten years ago. I prefer to compare
the Middle East to major cities around the world. Dubai has seen substantial
growth over the last 10–20 years, but the region’s potential is still far
bigger than we think.”
Fadil highlighted the Middle East’s position as both a
tourism destination and a major international connectivity hub linking Asia,
Europe and Africa. He also stressed the importance of AI and localisation as
the region attracts increasingly diverse traveller markets.
He said: “The Middle East is two things at once: a
destination in its own right and a hub connecting Asia, Europe and Africa.
Serving it well comes down to leveraging AI and deepening localisation.
Delivering an AI-powered travel experience will help sharpen every step of the
journey, from pre-booking inspiration to post-booking support. We want the
customer to have a local experience when they book with Agoda, no matter where
they’re from.”
Danielle Curtis, Regional Portfolio Director – UAE at RX
Global, said: “The findings presented at ATM demonstrate the strength of the
Middle East’s long-term tourism opportunity. Bringing research and industry
perspectives together on the Global Stage gives our community valuable insight
into where demand is moving and the opportunities that will shape the sector’s
future.”
Now in its 33rd edition, Arabian Travel Market remains a
major international travel and tourism event in the Middle East, bringing
together the global travel community to develop partnerships, share knowledge
and explore business opportunities across the sector. -TradeArabia News Service